Bihar Election 2025: Nitish, Tejashwi, or PK — Who Will Emerge Victorious?

Bihar 2025 may be the tightest race yet — Nitish fights anti-incumbency, Tejashwi seeks revival, and Prashant Kishor tests his new political avatar.

Pollster Pradeep Gupta, Chairman of Axis My India, spoke to journalist Barkha Dutt about the upcoming Bihar Assembly Elections 2025, predicting a neck-and-neck contest between the NDA, led by Nitish Kumar and the BJP, and the Mahagathbandhan, led by RJD and Congress.

Gupta highlighted that despite facing two decades of anti-incumbency, Nitish Kumar remains Bihar’s only “common denominator,” holding the political center even as alliances around him have shifted multiple times. He noted that while voters are fatigued with Nitish’s long tenure, they have yet to find a compelling alternative.

Discussing the emerging players, Gupta identified Prashant Kishor (PK) and his new party Jan Suraaj as a fresh but uncertain factor. PK’s campaign has gained attention for attacking both ruling and opposition leaders over corruption, but Gupta questioned whether the strategist-turned-politician could convert buzz into actual votes. He also noted that Bihar’s complex voter base — driven by caste, women, and youth dynamics — will make predictions difficult until the final phase.

On whether BJP could sideline Nitish Kumar post-election, Gupta remained cautious, saying that such decisions rest entirely with the party’s top leadership. However, he stressed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s brand equity remains a powerful factor influencing Bihar’s electorate.

Concluding the conversation, Barkha Dutt observed that Bihar’s politics continues to surprise, where, as she put it, “the more things change, the more they remain the same.”

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