Bihar Exit Polls: Pradeep Gupta of Axis My India Reveals Dramatic Numbers
Barkha Dutt closed the interview saying that Axis My India’s poll once again stands out with unique numbers and deep explanations. She added that election day will test how accurate these insights truly are.
Pradeep Gupta, the Chairman, Political Analyst and Chief Psephologist of Axis My India, spoke with senior journalist Ms. Barkha Dutt on the eve of the Bihar Election counting. Gupta leads one of India’s most trusted and widely followed exit polls, known for its large on-ground sample size and face-to-face method. In this interview, he explains why his poll shows the NDA ahead, but in a much closer contest than other exit polls.
Discussion:
Gupta said his team visited every Bihar constituency and collected around 200 samples per seat. His data shows NDA at 40–43% vote share, while the Mahagathbandhan stands at 41%, making it a very tight race. Seat projections also overlap, bringing the contest within a few seats at the lower ranges.
He explained that pro-incumbency for both the State and Central governments—especially among women beneficiaries—has helped NDA. Youth voters, however, leaned more towards the Mahagathbandhan. Gupta also noted a historic rise in voter turnout due to festival timings, voter roll cleanup, and many migrants returning home for Chhath.
On Nitish Kumar, he said voters still see him as dependable and results-oriented, despite criticism. Gupta added that Prashant Kishor’s party is gaining mainly among upper-caste voters, which unexpectedly cuts more into NDA votes than the opposition's.
He highlighted that small shifts—especially in Kishor’s vote share—can move NDA either below or far above its projected range.
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