"Fatigue Factor In Nitish But.." Who Will Benefit From Anti Incumbency in Bihar?
Pollster Pradeep Gupta tells Barkha Dutt that Bihar’s anti-incumbency may not help Tejashwi Yadav—but could create space for a BJP-led shift.
In an exclusive conversation with senior journalist Ms. Barkha Dutt, Pollster Pradeep Gupta, Chairman and Managing Director of Axis My India, shared insights on the political atmosphere in Bihar ahead of the elections. Gupta explained that while there is a strong anti-incumbency sentiment against Chief Minister Nitish Kumar after nearly 20 years in power, it may not directly help Tejashwi Yadav or the RJD-Congress alliance.
Gupta pointed out that Nitish Kumar remains the “common denominator” across alliances, having governed with both the BJP and RJD-Congress at different times. Because of this, he believes that the anti-incumbency wave is not isolated—it extends to all parties that have partnered with Nitish in the past.
He also observed that many voters in Bihar, especially younger ones, might now want to experience a BJP-led government independently, as the state has never seen the BJP ruling on its own, unlike other states like Odisha, Karnataka, and Tripura. Gupta said that a generation and demographic shift in Bihar is contributing to this changing sentiment.
While he didn’t claim that the BJP would automatically gain from this, he underlined that the fatigue factor against Nitish Kumar could work to the BJP’s advantage. His remarks suggest a new political curiosity in Bihar, where voters could consider the BJP as an alternative even within the NDA.
In her conclusion, Ms. Barkha Dutt noted that Gupta’s analysis reveals how Bihar’s voters are looking beyond personalities to broader governance patterns, setting the stage for a competitive and unpredictable election.
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